Rain (and Sun) Wednesday, Then a Much Stronger Storm Develops Late Week
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Tuesday’s weather was split across Newfoundland and Labrador. Eastern Newfoundland stayed under stubborn cloud cover for most of the day, while central and western parts of the Island enjoyed nearly clear skies. Labrador was mostly clear through the afternoon as well, but clouds and a few showers will move in overnight.
Temperatures across Newfoundland tonight will range from the low single digits in some areas to around 10°C to 12°C in the east. The cloud cover there will help keep temperatures a little milder. Rain will begin approaching the Avalon before sunrise Wednesday. By about 9 AM, rain should be falling across much of the Avalon, with some heavier pockets possible. A more organized band may move through during the afternoon, mainly from the Burin Peninsula toward the southern Avalon. Most areas can expect 5 to 15 mm of rain. Higher amounts are possible around St. Mary’s Bay and toward Trepassey Bay, where totals could reach 15 to 25 mm, or perhaps a little more. Despite the clouds and rain, it will still be warm.
Eastern Newfoundland should reach the upper teens or lower 20s. West of Clarenville, Wednesday looks excellent, with sunshine and temperatures in the low 20s. Conditions improve across Newfoundland on Thursday as the rain moves out. Temperatures should once again reach the lower 20s in many areas.
Labrador, meanwhile, is about to get much colder. A significant push of cold air arrives during the second half of the week. Labrador West is forecast to reach only about 8°C Thursday, 7°C Friday and 6°C Saturday. Overnight temperatures will fall close to freezing.
That may be cold enough to produce the first flurries of the season. There is a chance of flurries in Labrador West on Friday morning, with another opportunity on Sunday.
The same system pulling that cold air south could become the biggest weather story of the week for Newfoundland. Forecast models are showing an area of low pressure developing and strengthening rapidly across or near the Island between Friday and Saturday. If it develops as currently projected, central and northeastern Newfoundland could see a period of wind-driven rain from Friday night into Saturday morning.
The wind is the main concern. Some models are showing a narrow band of extremely strong winds developing behind the low, potentially affecting eastern Notre Dame Bay, Bonavista Bay and the Bonavista Peninsula. In the strongest scenario, gusts could exceed 120 km/h in a narrow area. A much broader region could see gusts near 100 km/h.
There is still plenty of uncertainty. The low could strengthen more slowly, track farther offshore or develop in a slightly different location. Any of those changes would shift the strongest winds elsewhere or reduce the threat altogether. Still, we are only a few days away, and the signal is strong enough to pay attention to.
Winds this strong can cause more trouble in September than they sometimes do in winter. Trees still have their leaves, the ground is not frozen, and fully leafed-out trees catch more wind. That increases the risk of broken branches and downed trees.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on this system over the next couple of days. The track and intensity should become clearer as we get closer.
The next forecast update will be tomorrow morning! Check back for updates!
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