Forecast

Coastal Flooding & Higher-Than-Normal Water Levels Expected Monday–Tuesday

By Eddie Sheerr·January 31, 2026 · 10:07 AM

Higher-than-normal water levels are expected along several coastal areas of Newfoundland as a strong winter storm moves through early this week. The greatest concern will be around times of high tide, when storm surge and large waves combine.

Areas of Concern

Along the east and northeast coasts, impacts are possible along eastern and northeastern-facing shorelines from Cape Freels south to the Burin Peninsula.

On the south coast, a coastal flooding statement is in effect for areas from Channel-Port aux Basques eastward through Fortune Bay, including:

• Western Coastline of the Burin Peninsula

• Newfoundland Coastline: Connaigre

• Newfoundland Coastline: Burgeo – Ramea – Grey River – Francois

• Newfoundland Coastline: Isle aux Morts – La Poile

• Newfoundland Coastline: Cape Ray – Channel-Port aux Basques
  

Timing

The risk window begins Monday morning and extends through Tuesday afternoon, with the most significant impacts expected near high tide.

High tide periods of concern:

• Monday: 6:00 A.M. – 12:00 P.M. and 6:00 P.M. – 12:00 A.M.

• Tuesday: 6:00 A.M. – 12:00 P.M.

• South Coast peak: Monday morning, roughly 8:00 A.M. – 11:00 A.M.

What’s Driving the Risk?

Strong onshore winds will generate large waves and storm surge, pushing extra water toward the coastline. Wave heights are expected to reach 4 to 6 metres, with waves breaking as they approach shore.

There is potential for water levels to exceed the highest astronomical tide, particularly where storm surge and wave action line up with high tide.

Potential Impacts

• Minor coastal flooding in low-lying areas

• Coastal erosion, especially in exposed locations

• Flooding or damage to wharves, roads, and other coastal infrastructure

• Splash-over and wave run-up in vulnerable harbours and shorelines

Bottom Line

This is not a widespread major flooding event, but timing will matter. Communities that typically see issues during storm surge events—especially at high tide—should keep a close eye on conditions Monday into early Tuesday.

I’ll continue to monitor this system and provide updates if the risk level changes.