Back to Back Lows As We Close Out The Week
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This was the coldest morning we’ve seen in St. John’s since June 6th, with the low dipping a little lower than -2. Highs recovered nicely today across Newfoundland and Labrador under an abundance of sunshine. Overlooking Water Street in downtown St. John’s this afternoon, and over in Corner Brook, there was literally not a cloud in the sky. It was the same beautiful day right down the West Coast, and on satellite imagery today, you can see snow on the Long Range Mountains. It looks like there’s a good bit of it, too.
Up in Labrador, it was sunny in Churchill Falls this afternoon as well, but that’s short-lived. Clouds are already scooting into western Labrador, and the snow and rain won’t be far behind. On the Island, we’re clear as a bell for the time being, but clouds are arriving in the southwest corner of Newfoundland and rain is falling across the Maritimes. The area of low pressure driving that system is intensifying and working its way toward Newfoundland and Labrador, and it’s going to bring rain, snow and wind with it through Thursday. Some of that wind will be on the high side.
Wind warnings tonight and Thursday morning
This low moves from where it is now across the Maritimes and into the North Atlantic by tomorrow evening or early Friday morning, bringing precipitation and wind along with it.
Wreckhouse: The wind picks up there first, as we go into the overnight. Environment Canada has a Wreckhouse wind warning in effect from this evening until after midnight, with maximum gusts of southeasterly 100 km/h in the Wreckhouse area. Driving conditions will likely be difficult, and high-sided vehicles will be pushed around by the wind. The gusts peak close to 100 km/h around midnight, then slack off after 2 or 3 in the morning. I don’t want to say the timing is as good as it gets, but midnight is a lot better than midday for travel and high-sided vehicles going through the area.
Eastern Newfoundland: Further east, there’s a wind warning for Thursday morning for St. John’s and vicinity, the northern Avalon Peninsula and the Bonavista Peninsula, with maximum gusts of south to southeasterly 80 km/h, except 100 along parts of the coast. Local utility outages are possible, so secure any loose objects tonight. The forecast for the metro area and the northeast Avalon shows gusts to about 90 km/h in the morning.
Elsewhere, it’s no big deal this evening, but once we get to midnight, the high winds kick in across the southwest corner of Newfoundland, including the Wreckhouse area and the Codroy Valley. They pick up on the Burin Peninsula and into Fortune Bay as well. In the early morning hours on Thursday, the strongest winds are over the Burin, Avalon and Bonavista peninsulas. They ease by 9:00 a.m., and more dramatically so after midday.
As the low pulls away, though, another round of wind comes in Thursday evening and Thursday night, increasing the gusts once again for parts of northeastern and eastern Newfoundland into Friday morning. Those winds may stay below warning criteria this time, and they shouldn’t be nearly as strong as Thursday morning, but it’s something I’m going to watch closely.
Rain overnight, snow in southeastern Labrador
By midnight, rain covers much of Newfoundland, with some snow in the higher elevations of the Long Range Mountains and snow in parts of Labrador. After midnight, the rain falls quite heavily over central and eastern areas of the Island, right as the winds are picking up. If you’re a light sleeper, you might get woken up by the rain pounding off the windows tonight.
Thursday morning, there’s rain and snow in southeastern Labrador, with rain along the coast and snow inland over the higher terrain. If you’re travelling early tomorrow morning, keep that in mind. By midday, rain and snow continue in southeastern Labrador, and there’s some rain across northern and southwestern Newfoundland, mainly in the form of showers. The heaviest rain moves east of the Avalon and northeastern Newfoundland by midday, then showers return for the second half of Thursday as the low pulls away. That sets the stage for a brief quiet period between Thursday night and late Friday afternoon or Friday evening.
How much rain and snow?
Between tonight and late Thursday, look for a solid 20 to 30 or 35 mm of rain across much of Newfoundland. There’s about 21 mm in the forecast for St. John’s and 25 mm in Placentia, with close to 40 mm for much of the Bonavista Peninsula and parts of Central. Amounts are lower toward the West Coast and Southwest Coast, but 20 to 30 mm is still in the forecast for a large swath of the Island.
We’re not expecting much snow outside of the higher terrain. In Labrador, the south sees some rain, with 10 to 15 mm along the coast from L’Anse au Loup up to Cartwright. Inland from there, there will be a little snow, so if you’re travelling along Routes 500 or 510 tomorrow, you may very well find some slippery conditions. By and large, though, this isn’t going to be as snowy a system as the last one.
A rapidly intensifying low for Friday night into Saturday
The next one, coming in as we close out the week and start the weekend, is a different animal. An area of low pressure takes shape over the Great Lakes on Friday morning, then tracks through parts of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes and eventually toward Newfoundland and Labrador on Saturday. As it does, it’s going to undergo bombogenesis, which means the low intensifies rapidly.
You may have seen some reporting of a “weather bomb.” I don’t love that term, but it essentially means bombogenesis: an area of low pressure that drops by 24 millibars in 24 hours. For you non-weather geeks out there, it means an intense area of low pressure. These lows often generate significant wind and copious amounts of precipitation, sometimes rain, sometimes snow and sometimes both. In this case, it looks like it’s going to be both.
As of now, the most significant snow is likely over southeastern Labrador, from near Red Bay up through Mary’s Harbour and Port Hope Simpson into Charlottetown. Significant snow is possible, but less likely, up toward Black Tickle and down toward Forteau and L’Anse-au-Clair. That could change depending on the low’s track. If it tracks further southeast, it pulls the snow into a more southern part of Labrador, the Lower North Shore of Quebec and maybe even the Northern Peninsula. If it shifts back toward the northwest, the snowfall potential shifts northwest with it. It’s only Wednesday, and the timing of this looks like late Friday night through Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening, so I’ll be watching it closely for you over the next couple of days.
The days ahead
Newfoundland: After the rain and wind on Thursday, Friday is the break. Saturday brings more rain and wind, along with warmer temperatures depending on where you are relative to the low. The cool-down returns on Sunday, and we stay cool into next week.
Labrador: There’s a chance of rain and snow on Saturday in the south and southeast. Right along the coast, it could mix with rain, but that will ultimately depend on the wind direction and how strong the low gets. Look for snow showers or flurries on the North Coast on Saturday. Churchill Falls and Lab West could see a little snow over the next couple of days, with highs potentially below freezing on Saturday and again on Sunday. In the Goose Bay area, remember there was snow in the forecast yesterday; right now it’s just light snow, snow showers or flurries for Saturday.
We’ll keep a close eye on that as we get closer, because a little nudge here or there with that low will have big forecast implications. Either way, it’s going to bring rain, warning-level wind for sure, and the potential for snow that could also reach warning criteria.
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